The Situation in Israel/Palestine/Iraq/Pakistan/arbitrarily defined 'nations'/etc. looks about as bad as ever for 2009. Of course, each one feeds into the next, and cascades are possible, or even likely?
The Israelis are tragically caught in a situation where their politicians have to pander to the voting populace by looking tough with another weird, half-cocked war - much like Lebanon in 2006.
One difference: besides the end of the 6-month cease-fire, which Hamas basically honored for the most part, not much happened to precipitate this dumb "all or nothing" gamble -- Israel has placed its credibility on winning.
However, it is of course more important to get into WHO placed credibility on winning: annoying career politicians. Fortunately, as everything explodes, poor ignored Ehud Barak can try to prove that the war will deliver better political mileage for Israel than the great 2006 Lebanon debacle.
This war has been looking pretty bad, PR-wise, for Israel; much weaker, really, than a lot of other things Israel has done, and in how people even on TV seem to talk about it. And yet, taking the plunge yet again, Israel takes to one extreme after another. At this point, why not?!
Two stories encapsulate the ugly weirdness of how these things get stacked up.
Within Israel there's a general election 5 weeks away, and it's a mess.
The Labor Party was seen crudely as the 'peace party,' which is true to some extent (though often not). The Likud Party is seriously looking to win bigtime, which would put the supremely narsty Benjamin Netanyahu back in charge . Thus, "reformed peacenik" Ehud Barak needs to whomp some people in a campaign that clearly won't deliver any definitive "victory". Except at the ballot box (maybe).
The Israeli paper Haaretz captures all this stuff so much more clearly than anything generally printed in the U.S. However at this time they are under a certain degree of military censorship, so keep that in mind. What excellent headline writing!
Last update - 04:28 05/01/2009
Barak's political fortunes seen rising with each missile that pounds Gaza
By Roni Singer-Heruti
The Israel Defense Forces operation in Gaza has prompted a surge in the number of people volunteering at the Labor Party's campaign headquarters over the last week, party officials say.
Thus far, the operation has been very popular with the public, and most of the credit has gone to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is also Labor's chairman.
The surge in people calling or emailing to volunteer their services is yet another sign of a trend already evident from the polls: a sharp rise in support for Labor in general and Barak in particular. Last week's Haaretz poll, for instance, found that Labor had risen to 16 Knesset seats from 11 in the previous poll.
The turnabout is particular striking for a party whose demise has been widely forecast just two weeks ago.
"There is no doubt that the [Gaza] operation has highlighted Barak's advantages and enabled a real discourse about the truly important matters," one senior Labor official said this weekend. "That's what we were trying to say all along: He's not a pal, he's not nice, but he's a leader. And now, people see that."
Even in the Ramle market, generally a reliable bastion of the right, support for Barak was virtually unanimous last week.
"Barak has proven himself in this operation as someone who knows how to do the work," said Shlomo Sarur, who has been a member of rival Likud's central committee for 25 years. "On security, he's good, and you can't take that away from him.
Labor officials insist that the operation's timing has nothing to do with the fact that elections are due to take place in another month, on February 10. But they readily admit that, as one put it, "his conduct in managing the operation in Gaza enables the public to examine Barak's conduct in the real world and not the world of image and style."
Officially, the party's campaign has been suspended since the operation began 10 days ago. But party officials know the campaign will have to resume the day after the operation ends, and they are therefore busy preparing their day-after strategies.
However, these strategies depend largely on how the operation turns out. If, by the time it ends, it is still perceived as a success, Barak will feature prominently in Labor's campaign as a "leader with a proven record." If not, Labor will clearly need a different tactic. But Dr. Tamir Sheafer of Hebrew University's political science program predicts that Labor's surge in the polls will be short-lived either way.
"It's all a question of how long the operation lasts and how many screw-ups there are," he said. "But from the polls we have conducted, it is possible to say that in general, rightist voters will ultimately have trouble putting a Labor ballot in the box."
The other story is not in Haaretz - apparently the Israelis have decided to round out their excellent PR so far and drop White Phosphorus rounds around Gaza. White Phosphorus is burning shards of metal, leaving puffy clouds behind -- toxic clouds, but 'gases', if you will.
White Phosphorus basically ought to be a war crime - you drop the shit all over an area you want to clear out and/or burn those within. Fortunately, the Israelis would never stoop to some treaty banning its use! Its use in Iraq is another unbelievably depressing story...
December 5, 2008
srael is believed to be using controversial white phosphorus shells to screen its assault on the heavily populated Gaza Strip yesterday. The weapon, used by British and US forces in Iraq, can cause horrific burns but is not illegal if used as a smokescreen.
As the Israeli army stormed to the edges of Gaza City and the Palestinian death toll topped 500, the tell-tale shells could be seen spreading tentacles of thick white smoke to cover the troops’ advance. “These explosions are fantastic looking, and produce a great deal of smoke that blinds the enemy so that our forces can move in,” said one Israeli security expert. Burning blobs of phosphorus would cause severe injuries to anyone caught beneath them and force would-be snipers or operators of remote-controlled booby traps to take cover. Israel admitted using white phosphorus during its 2006 war with Lebanon.
The use of the weapon in the Gaza Strip, one of the world’s mostly densely population areas, is likely to ignite yet more controversy over Israel’s offensive, in which more than 2,300 Palestinians have been wounded.
The Geneva Treaty of 1980 stipulates that white phosphorus should not be used as a weapon of war in civilian areas, but there is no blanket ban under international law on its use as a smokescreen or for illumination. However, Charles Heyman, a military expert and former major in the British Army, said: “If white phosphorus was deliberately fired at a crowd of people someone would end up in The Hague. White phosphorus is also a terror weapon. The descending blobs of phosphorus will burn when in contact with skin.”
The Israeli military last night denied using phosphorus, but refused to say what had been deployed. “Israel uses munitions that are allowed for under international law,” said Captain Ishai David, spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces. “We are pressing ahead with the second stage of operations, entering troops in the Gaza Strip to seize areas from which rockets are being launched into Israel.”
The civilian toll in the first 24 hours of the ground offensive — launched after a week of bombardment from air, land and sea— was at least 64 dead. Among those killed were five members of a family who died when an Israeli tank shell hit their car and a paramedic who died when a tank blasted his ambulance. Doctors at Gaza City’s main hospital said many women and children were among the dead and wounded.
The Israeli army also suffered its first fatality of the offensive when one of its soldiers was killed by mortar fire. More than 30 soldiers were wounded by mortars, mines and sniper fire.
Israel has brushed aside calls for a ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid into the besieged territory, where medical supplies are running short.
With increasingly angry anti-Israeli protests spreading around the world, Gordon Brown described the violence in Gaza as “a dangerous moment”.
White phosphorus: the smoke-screen chemical that can burn to the bone
— White phosphorus bursts into a deep-yellow flame when it is exposed to oxygen, producing a thick white smoke
— It is used as a smokescreen or for incendiary devices, but can also be deployed as an anti-personnel flame compound capable of causing potentially fatal burns
— Phosphorus burns are almost always second or third-degree because the particles do not stop burning on contact with skin until they have entirely disappeared — it is not unknown for them to reach the bone
— Geneva conventions ban the use of phosphorus as an offensive weapon against civilians, but its use as a smokescreen is not prohibited by international law
— Israel previously used white phosphorus during its war with Lebanon in 2006
— It has been used frequently by British and US forces in recent wars, notably during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Its use was criticised widely
— White phosphorus has the slang name “Willy Pete”, which dates from the First World War. It was commonly used in the Vietnam era
Source: Times archives
It is a classic weapon indeed. More about that here. Israel uses White Phosphorus Munitions in defiance of treaty | The Agonist
This is what you probably ought to check out. Very shocking video of a Gaza market evidently bombed by the Israelis. Honestly I could not handle watching the whole thing. Many people torn asunder.
Such is much like the carnage at suicide bombings and the many other varieties of explosions that happen all over these days. It is only via removing such images from general public awareness -- as a major fork of the whole effort -- can such horrors be rationalized. (and this certainly applies to all sides)
Nightmares... Just try getting this video out there. Information operations, indeed.
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