Systemic instabilities and emerging organizations

I am alarmed about the increasing waves of ... I don't know what to call it, angry energy ... oscillating between Fallujah, Fox News, Jerusalem and Najaf. On Fox they are all angry retired colonels all the time who've reached the firm consensus that the jihadis must be slaughtered in Fallujah wholesale, while the rest of the Arab world shimmers and buckles under the immense political pressure that Bush and Sharon generated by officially refuting the refugees and gaining the "Israeli population centers."

I'll cite a couple stories that I found interesting this evening. Firstly a piece on Tech Central Station positing the theory of a world-historical shift emerging through Islamic militancy in the middle east, conceived not as 'terrorism' or 'radicals vs moderates' but rather the new Islamist project or 'renovatio' of bringing down all the corrupt regimes and angling towards a new pan-Islamic caliphate. This kind of thing seemed a lot more far-fetched, what, a year ago?

WaPo says that a lot of soldiers are surviving injuries that would have been lethal, so of course it's a lot more living wreckage.

The Fallujah folks (of today's fallen minarets, no less) have sprouted a political arm affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. (could this be linked to Islamist disgruntlement in Syria??)

This feature from the journal Foreign Policy deflates a lot of myths about Al Qaeda, helping to illustrate that it's a sort of 'venture capital' kind of outfit rather than a coherent organization.

Suicide bombings have less to do with fundie indoctrination than sociological conditions: witness the Tamil Tigers, according to a political scientist. (not that this field doesn't attracts more than its share of preposterous poli sci fiends)

A writer in the Lebanese Daily Star is really just trying to get our attention, how could he have ever reached such silly conclusions:

Without being unduly alarmist, it is safe to predict that the coming weeks and months are likely to be exceedingly dangerous. It feels as if the whole planet is threatened by an imminent volcanic eruption. Such is the thirst for revenge and the level of frustration in the Arab and Muslim world that explosions of violence are to be expected in widely scattered locations....

Recent actions and statements by US President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, as well as by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, have been so grossly offensive to a large segment of Arab and Muslim opinion that they seem bound to trigger a violent response. By resorting to force and by ruling out a peaceful settlement of regional disputes, whether in Iraq or Palestine, these leaders have legitimized terror. Consciously or not, they have in fact provoked it....

Israel lies at the heart of the present international disorder. Its supporters in Washington conceived the war against Iraq and pressed for it to be waged, in the mistaken belief that it would help Israel defeat the Palestinians. Differences over how to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict have become the main subject of discord between Europe and the United States. Europe has been powerless to make itself heard, largely because of the large-scale, high-level penetration of the American government by "friends of Israel." This is a striking feature of contemporary politics.

Meanwhile, Israel's daily slaughter of Palestinians continues to outrage the conscience of the civilized world, yet no one knows how to stop it. Memories of the Holocaust, together with an unmatched worldwide propaganda machine, have given the Jewish state a wide measure of immunity. Yet Sharon's cynical strategy is crystal clear. To seize more land on the West Bank, he is exploiting to the full the support of a weak American president, anxious for the votes of American Jews and fundamentalist "Christian Zionists" in an election year.

And don't forget: Bush didn't really plan for the impact Iraq might have on the domestic economy, either!! (reg. req'd) Sweetness.

These links have been shamelessly pilfered from the superb WarInContext.org so please direct accolades and cash money to them; they work hard.

I guess all these articles really caught me as alarm bells that we are staring down a major sea change across the political system of the Mideast, like it or not. The question is which batshit apocalyptic militarists are going to call the shots on each side. (crossposted on DKos)

Posted by HongPong at April 28, 2004 02:11 AM
Listed under International Politics , Iraq , Israel-Palestine , War on Terror .